"A crackingly clear tutorial for beginners."
Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples is used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. Bayes' rule is then derived using intuitive graphical representations of probability, and Bayesian analysis is applied to parameter estimation using the MatLab programs provided. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.